Japan Opens ¥1,700 Trillion Vault

How to Select Japanese Equities That Are Antifragile

Published March 2026 • 29 pages

Multiple incentives are driving ¥1,700 trillion in Japanese household and corporate liquid wealth into a ¥1,300 trillion equity market. This paper provides an analysis of Japanese negative real rates, extreme yen undervaluation versus the US dollar, and aligned incentives that encourage capital deployment through Ministry of Economy, Trade, & Industry (METI) & Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) reforms.

Key Drivers: 46% yen to US dollar undervaluation • Bank of Japan negative real rates • Stock screening framework to find antifragile Japanese companies

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Markel Group: A Berkshire Structure at a 30-45% Discount to Intrinsic Value

Four Valuation Methods Converge on the Same Conclusion

Published June 2026 • 35 pages

Markel Group (NYSE: MKL) trades at a 30-45% discount to intrinsic value with several structural advantages: $19 billion of negative cost insurance float funding $18 billion of book value, with nearly $400/share hidden by distortions from GAAP accounting, a three-engine compounding flywheel driven by expanding float, and four decades of 16% intrinsic value CAGR.

Key Insights: 1:1 float leverage (4× Berkshire’s ratio) • 16% intrinsic value growth • Hidden GAAP book value • Reserve conservatism

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